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Century Therapeutics, Inc. (IPSC)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 headline: Century reprioritized its pipeline, discontinued ELiPSE-1 in R/R NHL, and concentrated clinical development of CNTY‑101 on autoimmune diseases while extending cash runway into Q4 2026 .
  • Results vs estimates: Q4 revenue beat Wall Street ($4.17M vs $0.98M), while EPS missed (−$0.35 vs −$0.20); consensus based on 4 revenue and 6 EPS estimates*.
  • Guidance/timing shift: Initial CALiPSO‑1 data moved from “by year‑end 2024” to “data anticipated in 2025,” with first patient dosing scheduled for March 2025 and expanded US/EU sites .
  • Strategic catalysts ahead: CALiPSO‑1 dosing and 2025 data readouts, initiation of the CARAMEL IIT mid‑2025, and IND‑enabling studies for CNTY‑308 in mid‑2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Concentrated focus on CNTY‑101 in autoimmune disease with clear 2025 data catalysts: “We believe CNTY‑101 is well‑positioned to potentially impact the standard of care meaningfully in B‑cell‑mediated autoimmune diseases… delivering data in 2025 from the CALiPSO‑1 Phase 1 trial” .
  • Cash runway extended into Q4 2026, supporting execution of key milestones .
  • Enhanced preclinical pipeline, including CNTY‑308 and CNTY‑341 engineered with Allo‑Evasion 5.0; CSO: “We aim to launch allogeneic cell therapies at antibody‑like scale and cost” .

What Went Wrong

  • ELiPSE‑1 discontinued in R/R NHL after emerging data did not meet the “transformational” threshold (though tolerability/activity encouraging), raising questions on oncology path while reinforcing autoimmune focus .
  • FY R&D expenses rose to $107.2M (+15.7% y/y) on trial progression, start‑up costs and manufacturing, pressuring near‑term losses despite pipeline progress .
  • CALiPSO‑1 timelines slipped (from “by year‑end 2024” to first dosing in March 2025), implying enrollment cadence and operational ramp are gating near‑term readouts .

Financial Results

Quarterly revenue and EPS trajectory (actuals)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.77 $0.79 $4.17*
EPS ($USD)$(0.38) $(0.37) $(0.35)*

Q4 2024 vs Wall Street consensus

MetricQ4 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.98*$4.17*
EPS ($USD)$(0.20)*$(0.35)*
EPS - # of Estimates6*
Revenue - # of Estimates4*
Target Price Consensus Mean ($)$3.00*$3.00*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

FY 2024 (for context)

MetricFY 2024
Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities ($USD Millions)$220.1
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$6.6
R&D Expenses ($USD Millions)$107.2
G&A Expenses ($USD Millions)$33.2
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$126.6

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
GAAP Operating ExpensesFY 2024$150–$160M Actual: $144.7M Better than guided (lower spend)
Cash RunwayMulti‑year“Second half of 2026” “Fourth quarter 2026” Extended/clarified
CALiPSO‑1 initial data timingAutoimmune Phase 1“By year‑end 2024” “Data anticipated in 2025; first dosing March 2025; US/EU site expansion” Pushed
ELiPSE‑1 (R/R NHL)Oncology Phase 1Proceeding at DL4B; update mid‑2025 Program discontinued; continued access for benefiting patients Lowered/terminated
CARAMEL IIT (Autoimmune)Phase 1/2 IITNot previously disclosedCommence mid‑2025 pending CTA New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available; themes synthesized from company 8‑K and press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Autoimmune expansion (CNTY‑101)Initiated CALiPSO‑1 in SLE/LN; basket protocol expanded to dcSSc/IIM; initial data targeted by YE24 First patient enrolled/scheduled March 2025; US/EU site expansion; data anticipated 2025 Execution advancing; timelines extended
Oncology read‑through (ELiPSE‑1)Dose‑dependent exposure; DL3B ORR 83%/CR 33%; moving to DL4B Discontinued in R/R NHL; data still support Allo‑Evasion repeat dosing, lymph node trafficking, deep B‑cell depletion Strategic pivot to autoimmune; mechanism validated
Cash and OpEx disciplineRunway into 2026; OpEx guide $150–$160M Runway into Q4 2026; FY OpEx actual $144.7M Improved spending vs guide; runway extended
Preclinical pipeline (Allo‑Evasion 5.0)ASH posters (CD300a TASR; iPSC CD4+/CD8+ CAR‑T functions) Prioritized CNTY‑308/CD19 and CNTY‑341/CD19+CD22; IND‑enabling for CNTY‑308 mid‑2025 Platforms maturing; near‑term IND track
European expansionUS site activations EU site additions for CALiPSO‑1; CARAMEL IIT mid‑2025 Broader geographic footprint

Management Commentary

  • CEO (Brent Pfeiffenberger): “We believe CNTY‑101 is well‑positioned to potentially impact the standard of care meaningfully in B‑cell‑mediated autoimmune diseases…we are implementing key initiatives to drive toward delivering data in 2025 from the CALiPSO‑1 Phase 1 trial” .
  • CSO (Chad Cowan): “We aim to launch allogeneic cell therapies at antibody‑like scale and cost…we are aiming for comparable or better performance to approved autologous CAR‑T therapies” .
  • On ELiPSE‑1 discontinuation: “Emerging clinical data do not meet the company’s threshold to be considered transformational in [R/R NHL]…ELiPSE‑1 data continues to reinforce the potential of CNTY‑101 in autoimmune diseases” .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available. Based on disclosures, management emphasized:

  • Rationale for ELiPSE‑1 discontinuation and resource reallocation to autoimmune (mechanistic validation, repeat dosing via Allo‑Evasion) .
  • CALiPSO‑1 operational execution (site activations in US/EU; first dosing March 2025; data anticipated 2025) .
  • Preclinical program prioritization and timelines (CNTY‑308 IND‑enabling mid‑2025; dual‑target CNTY‑341; Nectin‑4 solid tumor program) .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 revenue beat: $4.17M actual vs $0.98M consensus; EPS missed: $(0.35) actual vs $(0.20) consensus; coverage depth: 4 revenue estimates, 6 EPS estimates*.
  • With ELiPSE‑1 discontinued, Street models likely reduce oncology optionality while shifting probability‑weighted value toward autoimmune readouts (CALiPSO‑1 in 2025, CARAMEL mid‑2025).
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near‑term catalysts in autoimmune: CALiPSO‑1 first dosing (March 2025) and 2025 data are likely the primary stock drivers; watch EU site activation pace .
  • Strategic pivot reduces oncology spend/risk and concentrates capital on indications where Allo‑Evasion‑enabled repeat dosing and deep B‑cell depletion could be transformative .
  • Financial discipline improved: FY OpEx came in below guidance and runway extended to Q4 2026, giving multi‑year execution capacity without near‑term financing .
  • Preclinical value chain maturing: CNTY‑308 IND‑enabling mid‑2025 and dual‑target CNTY‑341 broaden optionality; evidence of iPSC CD4+/CD8+ CAR‑T functions strengthens platform narrative .
  • Expect Street estimate revisions to reflect the discontinuation of ELiPSE‑1 and shift toward autoimmune timelines; model updates should incorporate later CALiPSO‑1 data timing and 2025 catalysts .
  • Trading lens: Positive revenue surprise in Q4 vs consensus*, but EPS missed* amid higher R&D; flow‑through from pipeline news and trial execution cadence likely outweigh quarterly P&L for this stage company.

References: 8‑K and press releases .